Recognize counterfeits

A little cash game action, for a change.

Full Tilt Poker Game #_: Table Churchfield - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:17:17 ET - 2007/10/27
Seat 1: ($26)
Seat 2: hero ($6.45)
Seat 3: ($34.80)
Seat 4: ($10.90)
Seat 5: ($25.35)
Seat 6: ($7.65)
Seat 7: villain ($13)
Seat 8: ($39.95)
Seat 9: ($23.65)
Seat 6 posts the small blind of $0.10
villain posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [4d Td]
Seat 8 calls $0.25
Seat 9 folds
Seat 1 folds

Let's gamble. They're soooooted. :)

hero calls $0.25
Seat 3 folds
Seat 4 calls $0.25
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 calls $0.15
villain checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 9c Tc]

Whomba!

Seat 6 checks
villain bets $1.25
Seat 8 calls $1.25

Let's not scare anyone away yet.

hero calls $1.25
Seat 4 folds
Seat 6 calls $1.25
*** TURN *** [Th 9c Tc] [7s]
Seat 6 checks
villain checks
Seat 8 checks

Now the potential straight is too scary. Time to pull the trigger.

nsayer bets $4.95, and is all in
Seat 6 folds
villain calls $4.95
Seat 8 folds
hero shows [4d Td]
villain shows [9d 7h]

Now, I'm fairly confident that the villain here called because he thought his 9s over 7s was good. What he neglected to notice is that pairing his 7 was worthless - his hand was already two pair (9s and tens) on the flop. It was actually a really dumb call. Let's look at it from his perspective. He flops two pair with the over pair on the board. That means that probably nobody else at the table hit, but if they did, he's almost certainly crushed. He leads out and gets 3 callers. That should scare him. Perhaps one of them has a straight draw, but at least one possibility is that there's a ten out there. If I'm in his spot, I shut down. The turn was a potential straight card (68, 8J - remember, nobody raised before the flop). Of course, it also gave a boat to pocket 7s, but you can't look for monsters under the bed. So he checks and a short stack moves in. What is his 3 pair hand beating? Maybe he's got one card to come to pull what he sees as a 6-out draw for a boat to beat a straight (which is already pretty thin odds - about 7:1). In actual fact, he was drawing completely dead. Any card that gives him a boat gives me either quads or an over-boat.

*** RIVER *** [Th 9c Tc 7s] [2d]
hero shows three of a kind, Tens
villain shows two pair, Tens and Nines
hero wins the pot ($15.35) with three of a kind, Tens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.15 | Rake $0.80
Board: [Th 9c Tc 7s 2d]
Seat 1: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: hero showed [4d Td] and won ($15.35) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 3: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: folded on the Flop
Seat 5: (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: villain (big blind) showed [9d 7h] and lost with two pair, Tens and Nines
Seat 8: folded on the Turn
Seat 9: didn't bet (folded)