Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Nice call, damnit

What a night. 0 for 3. KK over QQ, an idiot rivering two pair to beat my overpair, and then there's this hand:

Full Tilt Poker Game #_: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (_), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:18:22 ET - 2008/02/27
Seat 1: hero (2,060)
Seat 2: villain (1,900)
Seat 3: (5,040)
Seat 3 posts the small blind of 30
hero posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ah 5c]
villain raises to 210
Seat 3 folds
hero calls 150
*** FLOP *** [8s Tc Jc]
hero bets 400
villain calls 400
*** TURN *** [8s Tc Jc] [8d]
hero bets 1,450, and is all in

Now, look at it from his point of view. What might I have that would allow me to be so aggressive? We're 3 handed, 9Q is not out of the question. 97 is maybe pushing it, but how about AJ, KJ, AT? Maybe an 8?

villain calls 1,290, and is all in
hero shows [Ah 5c]
villain shows [Kc Qc]
Uncalled bet of 160 returned to hero

Unbelievable. Ace high is the winner at the moment. But he has a straight-flush draw and over-cards. So he has 6 outs for the overs, 6 9s and aces that aren't clubs, and 9 clubs. 21 outs. Since we're on the turn, though, that's still less than 2:1 odds, and if the river is a red deuce, he's gone. Using strict pot odds, any call on the flop is correct, since he's the favorite. And on the turn, he has to call 1290 to win over 3800, so that's correct. But this is a tournament. If he fails to suck out, or if I've already got a boat or quads (in which case he has exactly two outs), he's out on the bubble. Since he was the favorite on the flop, he should have pushed immediately. I, of course, would have folded my bluff hand, but if I had the AJ I was representing, I would have called.

Of course, as it turns out...

*** RIVER *** [8s Tc Jc 8d] [9h]


hero shows a pair of Eights
villain shows a straight, King high
villain wins the pot (3,830) with a straight, King high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,830 | Rake 0
Board: [8s Tc Jc 8d 9h]
Seat 1: hero (big blind) showed [Ah 5c] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 2: villain (button) showed [Kc Qc] and won (3,830) with a straight, King high
Seat 3: (small blind) folded before the Flop

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