Idiot commentators on YouTube

First, we have to start with the video in question:



Oliver Hudson and Sam Farha are playing the very first hand of the WSOP main event. Hudson flops tens-full and loses. Lots of the commentators on YouTube berate Hudson for going out on hand 1, but I think they're wrong. If you don't go broke in that spot, you're not getting full value out of your monsters in the long run. Let's look at the math.

If you flop a boat with a pocket pair with your boat being an under-set and overpair, there are 3 cards left in the deck of which your opponent must have two in order to have you beat. The odds of that happening are 360 to 1. I'll bet my entire tournament on those sorts of odds every time you give me the chance.

Recently, I got a chance to do exactly that:

Full Tilt Poker Game #_: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (_), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:25:52 ET - 2008/07/03
Seat 1: (2,385)
Seat 2: (795)
Seat 3: (1,380)
Seat 4: (1,510)
Seat 5: hero (1,520)
Seat 6: (1,500)
Seat 7: (1,500)
Seat 8: villain (1,410)
Seat 9: (1,500)
hero posts the small blind of 20
Seat 6 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ts Tc]
Seat 7 folds
villain raises to 120
Seat 8 folds
Seat 1 folds
Seat 2 folds
Seat 3 folds
Seat 4 folds
hero calls 100
Seat 6 folds
*** FLOP *** [Th Ac As]

There's my boat.

hero checks
villain bets 160

Ok. Either he was continuation betting and he's never going to put another nickel into this pot or he has an ace or maybe pocket kings and thinks he has the best of it. If he has an ace, then the only way he's beat at the moment is if I have him out-kicked or have a boat already. If I'm in his shoes, and I have an ace, I have to call unless I have a super-weak kicker. But then, if I had a dry ace, I wouldn't have made an early position raise pre-flop.

hero raises to 1,400, and is all in

My raise is designed to look like one of those idiot bluff plays that you see pretty frequently online.

villain calls 1,130, and is all in
hero shows [Ts Tc]
villain shows [8d Ad]

I thought so. A8 is sort of weak for an early position pre-flop raise. I had him on an ace-and-a-face.

In any event, he has 4 outs at this point - the case ace and 3 8s - plus the board pairing runner-runner. He's a 4.5:1 dog.

Uncalled bet of 110 returned to hero
*** TURN *** [Th Ac As] [7d]

He can also now win with any of the 3 remaining sevens. He's still a 7:1 dog.

*** RIVER *** [Th Ac As 7d] [2c]
hero shows a full house, Tens full of Aces
villain shows three of a kind, Aces
hero wins the pot (2,860) with a full house, Tens full of Aces
villain stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,860 | Rake 0
Board: [Th Ac As 7d 2c]
Seat 1: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: hero (small blind) showed [Ts Tc] and won (2,860) with a full house, Tens full of Aces
Seat 6: (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: villain showed [8d Ad] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 9: didn't bet (folded)