Monday, August 6, 2007

Out in one hand

When you see someone lose a tournament in one hand, it either means that one of the players in the hand is a complete donkey or one of them got ridiculously unlucky. And there aren't many situations that match that description. Pocket Aces vs. pocket Kings is certainly a qualifier. Just about the only other one that comes to mind where all the money went in and nobody is to blame is set over set.

Guess what.

I played at tonight's midnight tournament. I started on the button (lucky me). The blinds start at $25/$25 with a spread of $25-$1000 with stacks of $3000. I was dealt pocket 5s. 2nd to act raises by one chip, but he didn't actually say it. I suspect he was trying to limp and thought the blinds were $25/$50. The hijack (one to the right of the cut-off, which is to the right of the button) then raises to $150.

So what do we do with small pocket pairs in position? We get in as cheaply as possible and try to flop a set. Was I worried about being re-raised by the initial "raiser?" No, because I interpreted it as a limp, and he probably did too. Would I have called with 5s if it had been raised to $75, then re-raised to $225? Probably not, because I would have worried about a re-raise.

I call, the blinds fold and the limper/raiser guy calls. The flop comes 562 with two diamonds (I have the 5d). The first guy checks, then the hijack bets $400. I raise to $1400. The limper guy folds. The hijack raises to $2400, I go all-in, he calls. And turns up pocket 6s. The turn is a diamond, so that makes him sweat a little, but the river is a spade. And I'm out in one hand.

This is, of course, the very first hand, so none of us have any information about the other players.

So, gentle readers... what do you think? I think folding 2nd set in that spot is definitely -EV. Statistically the next time it'll be against pocket aces and I'll be the happy one.


Kung-Fu Moses said...

what's EV?

Sounds like all in all you made a valiant effort to give your chips away as quickly as possible. Although, that is the point sometimes.

Nick said...

EV means Expected Value. A particular choice you make will, statistically, result in an average gain or loss compared to other possible choices you could make.

And obviously if I knew that the guy had an overset I wouldn't have called, but I think even Ted Forrest goes broke in that spot.