Saturday, May 26, 2007

Another lesson on pot odds

Full Tilt Poker Game #_: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (_), Table 7 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:44:11 ET - 2007/05/26
Seat 1: (2,385)
Seat 2: (825)
Seat 3: (2,290)
Seat 4: (645)
Seat 5: (4,825)
Seat 6: hero (5,540)
Seat 7: (1,740)
Seat 8: (1,805)
Seat 9: (1,840)
Seat 7 posts the small blind of 40
Seat 8 posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [2h 2c]
Seat 9 folds
Seat 1 folds
Seat 2 folds
Seat 3 raises to 240
Seat 4 calls 240
Seat 5 calls 240

What are my pot odds to call here? 4:1. There are a couple of people to act behind still, but unless more than one of them have a bigger pair, I'm not that far out to call.

But if you're going to call here, it's because of the implied pot if you get a 2. Any deuce-less flop gets a check-fold.

hero calls 240
Seat 7 folds
Seat 8 has 15 seconds left to act
Seat 8 folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 4h 7s]

et voila.

Seat 3 bets 80
Seat 4 raises to 405, and is all in
Seat 5 calls 405

Bet, all-in and call. There are two spades out there, so I can't afford to give a free card. Maybe I'll get called by at least one of rest. Charge!

hero raises to 5,300, and is all in
Seat 3 folds
Seat 5 folds

Darn. Well, at least there's the all-in player.

hero shows [2h 2c]
Seat 4 shows [Ah Qd]
Uncalled bet of 4,895 returned to hero
*** TURN *** [2s 4h 7s] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [2s 4h 7s 4s] [7c]
nsayer shows a full house, Twos full of Sevens
Seat 4 shows two pair, Sevens and Fours
hero wins the pot (2,375) with a full house, Twos full of Sevens
Seat 4 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,375 | Rake 0

Look back at the call of 240 before the flop: my realized pot odds on that call were almost 10:1. That is, when the 2 came on the flop, I very likely was going to win it, and the final pot was not quite ten times the size of the pre-flop call. If a two hadn't come, I was very likely going to lose the 240. My odds of flopping at least one two were 9:1. QED.

Board: [2s 4h 7s 4s 7c]
Seat 1: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: folded on the Flop
Seat 4: showed [Ah Qd] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Fours
Seat 5: folded on the Flop
Seat 6: hero (button) showed [2h 2c] and won (2,375) with a full house, Twos full of Sevens
Seat 7: (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: didn't bet (folded)

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